U of A acceptance rate rises to 90% as applications plunge

For Tucson, the University of Arizona’s changing admissions picture could mean fewer new students arriving on campus, fewer students living in university housing and less activity for businesses that depend on the academic calendar. Internal university data indicates the UA expects about 5,800 first year undergraduate students this fall, a decline of nearly 23% from fall 2025. That follows a 19% drop in first year enrollment between fall 2024 and fall 2025, extending a sharp contraction at one of Tucson’s largest institutions.

At the same time, the university’s overall acceptance rate for first year undergraduate students has climbed to about 90%, according to data current as of Aug. 10. The rate was approximately 87% in fall 2024 and 85% in fall 2025. The increase comes after UA leaders publicly described a plan to reduce enrollment and become more selective, raising questions about how the university’s stated strategy aligns with the preliminary numbers.

The biggest change is the collapse in applications. Arizona applications fell from nearly 14,000 in each of the previous two years to about 10,600 for fall 2026, a decline of roughly 24%. Applications from outside Arizona dropped from between 30,000 and 32,000 to approximately 20,600, down about 33%. International applications fell even more dramatically, from roughly 8,800 to 9,000 in recent years to about 1,600 this year, a decrease of about 81%.

Acceptance rates varied considerably by student category. The rate for Arizona applicants rose from approximately 92% to 93% in fall 2024 and 2025 to nearly 95% this fall. For out of state applicants, it declined from about 93% to 94% to approximately 88%. International acceptance increased from nearly 59% in fall 2024 and 51% in fall 2025 to almost 89% this year. Because the pool of applicants has changed so substantially, a higher acceptance rate does not necessarily mean more students will enroll.

The university has emphasized that it wants to provide greater access and financial support to Arizona students while being more cautious about enrolling students from elsewhere. Provost Patricia Prelock previously said the UA still wants out of state students, but would not provide significant merit aid to every applicant. UA enrollment figures for fall 2025 showed a 23% decline in students from outside Arizona.

For fall 2026, the UA changed its admissions process by establishing a Nov. 1 deadline for early acceptance. Applications submitted later were processed during the spring. The university also introduced a holistic review system, considering applicants’ experiences, accomplishments and goals in addition to their grade point averages. Officials have connected the new approach to concerns that some incoming students were not prepared for the demands of college.

UA President Suresh Garimella and Prelock discussed that reasoning in a May interview with the Chronicle of Higher Education. Garimella said the university previously received many applications from students who may not have been serious about attending or who lacked the grades required by other universities. Some were admitted with substantial financial aid, he said, then struggled academically and did not graduate. Prelock has said the university should focus less on celebrating enrollment growth and more on preparation, degree progress and whether graduates are ready for work and fulfilling lives.

The university has also set specific goals for student success. Prelock said she wants to raise retention by 2% annually for three years, reaching 90%, and increase graduation rates by 2% over five years, with targets of 65% for four year graduation and 85% for six year graduation. Those goals are unfolding as the UA manages a smaller incoming class and tries to determine whether its admissions changes are improving student outcomes or reducing its reach among prospective Wildcats.

Faculty leaders remain concerned, particularly about the drop in Arizona applications. Faculty Chair Leila Hudson said the decline is among the most troubling parts of the admissions shortfall. She said faculty leaders have not received the same level of transparency about the figures that they had in previous years, making it difficult to assess whether the preliminary data is reliable. If accurate, she said, the numbers suggest the administration’s strategy is encountering problems. Hudson attributed part of the decline to what she described as weakened relationships with high school counselors and families, confusing recruiting communications and an inconsistent rollout of holistic review. She said Arizona students should never be discouraged from applying to the state’s flagship university.

Mark Stegeman, a UA associate professor of economics, said the out of state decline was expected and that most faculty support a renewed emphasis on Arizona students. He described the in state application decline as more difficult to explain and the most concerning. He suggested the UA may have lost some applicants to Arizona State University, whose transcripts make online education less apparent to students concerned about how employers will view their academic histories. Broader forces are also affecting the university, including high out of state tuition, a nationwide decline in international enrollment and the approaching demographic cliff. The number of traditional age students is projected to begin falling in 2026, with new high school graduates expected to decline by about 13% by 2041. International enrollment is also being pressured by visa appointment delays and more restrictive immigration policies. UA spokesperson Mitch Zak did not confirm or deny the internal figures, saying official numbers will be released after the fall census is completed once the semester begins Aug. 24.