Second down: Numbers show UofA first-year enrollment falling nearly 19% for second straight year

University of Arizona officials say 6,111 first-year students enrolled this fall, a decline of about 18.6% from the 7,506 students who entered in fall 2025. For Tucson, the smaller class is already visible on campus and could affect the businesses, landlords, faculty and staff members who depend on the university’s student population. A fifth-year senior told KGUN that campus walkways and common areas feel less crowded than they did a year or two ago, when moving through the university often meant navigating shoulder-to-shoulder foot traffic.

The new figure is the second consecutive major drop in the size of the university’s incoming class. First-year enrollment fell from about 9,300 in fall 2024 to 7,500 in fall 2025, then declined again this year. The final number is higher than an internal estimate of approximately 5,800 that was circulating in early August, about two weeks before classes began. At that time, university spokesman Mitch Zak disputed the estimate but said the university would not release its figures until the fall census was completed in late September.

The university is presenting the decrease as part of a deliberate change in enrollment strategy rather than simply a failure to attract students. Administrators say they are prioritizing applicants who are academically prepared, students who are more likely to remain enrolled and higher graduation rates. The strategy also places greater emphasis on Arizona residents and students who need financial aid, while reducing some merit scholarships for out-of-state students. University leaders have described the goal as creating smaller, “right-sized” classes that improve student outcomes and maintain net tuition revenue.

This year’s incoming students had stronger academic indicators than the university reported in earlier classes. Their average high school GPA was 3.55, more than 40% had GPAs above 3.75, and nearly 36% finished among the top 10% of their high school class. Arizona residents represented almost 70% of first-year students, compared with 63% last year and 53% in 2024. More than 30% of the class are first-generation college students, a figure President Suresh Garimella said reflects the land-grant university’s responsibility to provide access to Arizona communities.

The entering undergraduate class totaled 8,498 students when 2,387 transfers were included. Across the university’s campuses, Arizona Online and the University of Arizona Global Campus, total enrollment was 67,714. Excluding the Global Campus, the total was 49,104. The university also retired its Schedule for Success program, which provided additional preparation for students before they took on the full academic workload. Officials said that program contributed to earlier enrollment totals and that main-campus first-year enrollment, excluding it, has generally been between 6,000 and 7,000 students in recent years.

The enrollment strategy has drawn sharp criticism from faculty and local business observers. Faculty Chair Leila Hudson has warned that lower enrollment could create financial problems because tuition supplies most of the university’s operating revenue. She has called for any budget reductions to begin with senior administrative efficiencies, and for faculty to have a larger role in decisions about admissions, class sizes and student services. At a Faculty Senate meeting, Hudson also criticized what she described as a lack of transparency and a pattern of making major decisions without meaningful faculty consultation.

Oliver Swan, who owns a student apartment community on Stone Avenue, said describing the decline as intentional right-sizing misrepresents the university’s situation. He argued that many university costs remain fixed, including the expense of cooling buildings such as libraries, regardless of how full they are. Swan said fewer students could hurt restaurants, bars, housing operators and other Tucson businesses that serve the university community. Regents professor Lucy Ziurys likewise said the continued decline could have lasting consequences for students, employees, the university and the broader local economy.

Garimella has rejected the idea that the latest figures represent a major change in the number of fully qualified students enrolling. Speaking to the Faculty Senate, he said the university’s academically qualified first-year population has remained broadly steady over several years, though he did not define that category or provide figures. He pointed to improving outcomes, including a reported four-year graduation rate of 61.2% in the fall census data. Other university figures put one-year retention at 83.2%, with four-year and six-year graduation rates at 57.2% and 70.9%. Administrators have set goals of reaching 90% retention and four-year and six-year graduation rates of 65% and 85%.

The university also says changes to its application process may have affected enrollment. Last year, it adopted a Nov. 1 application deadline and continued accepting applications on a rolling basis through spring. Garimella said counselors and academic colleges needed time to adjust, but that the university now has better systems in place. The administration has reported higher yield rates, meaning the share of admitted students who enroll, among Arizona residents, nonresidents and international students. At the same time, international enrollment has faced national obstacles, including visa delays, travel restrictions and fewer available appointments. The university has also cited a nationwide demographic decline in the number of traditional college-age students, with high school graduates expected to decrease over the coming decades.

For Tucson students, one possible benefit of the new direction is expanded transfer access. Transfer enrollment from Pima Community College rose 5.7% this fall, reaching its highest level since 2020. Garimella said the university is developing a tool to help community college students choose courses that transfer cleanly, addressing cases in which students can lose as many as 30 credits when they move to a four-year institution. The university says these pathways can reduce costs and improve completion rates. Even as officials emphasize retention, graduation and affordability, the debate over whether the shrinking first-year class represents responsible planning or a deepening financial crisis is likely to continue across campus and throughout Tucson.