How will Arizonans vote?

For Tucson voters, Election Day is only the beginning of the process of determining who won Arizona’s closest races. Polls close at 7 p.m. Mountain Standard Time, but the final results may not be known for days or weeks as election officials verify mail ballot signatures, allow voters to correct problems, and complete required bipartisan audits. Anyone still in line at 7 p.m. must be allowed to vote.

Arizona’s political balance helps explain why the count may draw intense attention. Republicans have more registered voters statewide, but elections have repeatedly been decided by narrow margins, with Democrats winning several statewide contests in recent years. University of Arizona political scientist Samara Klar describes the electorate as nearly evenly divided among Republicans, Democrats and independents. Independents account for about 33 percent of registered voters, giving them an especially important role in close races.

Klar said most independent voters will identify a party preference when asked, although they generally have weaker ties to that party than committed Republicans or Democrats. They are less likely to campaign, display yard signs or urge coworkers to support a candidate. In Arizona, she said, independents appear to have leaned Democratic in recent statewide elections. That pattern helps account for the state having a Democratic governor, two Democratic U.S. senators, a Democratic attorney general and a Democratic secretary of state, despite the Republican registration advantage.

The cost of living has been a major concern for voters across party lines this year. That issue has felt more immediate and personal to many residents than other political questions, according to Klar. Pollsters have tried to measure how voters are responding, but their work has built in challenges. Younger people may be less willing to answer surveys, and conservatives and Republicans are often less likely to speak with pollsters. Unadjusted survey samples can therefore include too many older voters, women, white voters, liberals and college educated people, requiring statistical weighting to better represent the electorate.

The first results released at 8 p.m. will not include every ballot cast in Arizona. That initial report consists of early mail ballots that arrived and were processed before Election Day. Results from in person voting are expected to be uploaded later in the evening and into the early morning. After polls close, bipartisan teams secure tabulator memory cards in tamper resistant packages and deliver them to county tabulation centers.

The largest source of delay is expected to be early ballots dropped off on Election Day. Nearly nine in 10 of Arizona’s 4.37 million registered voters choose mail voting, but many wait until the final day to return their ballots. Workers cannot simply open those envelopes at a polling place because the voter’s identity has not been verified there. Each envelope must be sent to a central facility, where staff scan its barcode, confirm that the voter has not already voted elsewhere and compare the signature with records on file.

Only after a signature is accepted can a bipartisan board open the envelope, check the ballot for damage and send it through a scanner. If a ballot contains an unclear mark, a write in candidate or an instruction such as “this one” rather than a filled oval, a Democrat and a Republican on an adjudication board must inspect it and agree on the voter’s intent. Coconino County Elections Director Eslir Musta said changes in the results after election night are an expected part of counting every eligible ballot, not evidence that the system has failed.

Maricopa County has introduced procedures intended to reduce the backlog, changes that could affect how quickly some ballots are included in the first totals. Voters who bring a mail ballot to a voting location can show photo identification and have their identity checked in person. After the envelope is verified, the voter can feed the ballot into an onsite scanner. The county also updated software so election workers can view envelope signatures and voter records side by side, rather than searching through older files. Officials say the changes have already shortened signature review, while retaining oversight from both political parties.

Arizona voters must still follow several practical rules. Voting locations are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m., and voters can confirm their assigned site through my.arizona.vote. Flooding may affect roads and access in some areas, so voters are encouraged to check arizona.vote or contact their county election office before traveling. In person voters need acceptable identification, such as a valid Arizona driver license or Tribal ID. Voters without the required identification may cast a conditional provisional ballot, but it will count only if identity documentation is provided by the post election deadline. Early ballots must arrive by 7 p.m., and voters who still have one are advised to sign and date the envelope and return it to a voting location in their county rather than mail it.

The remaining schedule is set by law. Voters have until 5 p.m. on Nov. 8 to resolve a missing or mismatched signature or provide identification. County boards of supervisors are scheduled to certify local results between Nov. 9 and Nov. 19, after chain of custody reviews, scanner accuracy tests and random hand counts conducted with political party representatives. The Arizona secretary of state is required to certify statewide results by Nov. 23. For Tucson residents watching tight contests, the meaningful result may therefore come well after the first numbers appear, with the certified outcome depending on the volume of late returned ballots and any ballots requiring follow up.