Economy, immigration shape key Arizona congressional race

For Tucson residents, the contest between Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani and Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza could help determine which party controls the U.S. House, while putting local concerns about prices, health care, immigration and jobs at the center of a national political fight. Arizona’s 6th Congressional District is considered one of the country’s most competitive House districts. It leans slightly Republican, but its registered voters are divided into roughly equal thirds among Republicans, Democrats and independents, according to Arizona Secretary of State data.

The race has also become impossible to miss. Ciscomani and Mendoza’s campaigns have collectively raised more than $13.5 million, according to Federal Election Commission data, fueling a flood of television advertising across Southern Arizona. Mendoza had raised about $1.2 million more than Ciscomani as of the most recent filing period described in the reporting. Her campaign also said she collected $3.3 million from July through September, though the official federal filing for that period had not yet been released. National Democrats identified the district nearly two years ago as a potential pickup that could help them regain the House majority.

Ciscomani, a two-term Republican, has made the economy and his support for President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act central to his campaign. During a Sept. 11 appearance at the Tucson Convention Center, he climbed the equivalent of 110 flights of stairs in the annual Tower Challenge honoring first responders. He later attended a naturalization ceremony in downtown Tucson, where 30 people took the oath of citizenship. Ciscomani told them that becoming a citizen had taken his family more than 13 years, and said the ceremony reminded him of his father, a bus driver from Mexico.

The incumbent argues that the economy is improving and that Trump’s tax policies are helping people retain more of their income. He pointed to provisions involving overtime pay, Social Security and the child tax credit as examples of policies designed to put money back into household budgets. Ciscomani has blamed the Biden administration for leaving behind record inflation, although a fact check cited in the reporting found that the inflation rate inherited by Trump was about 3%, not a record level. Another analysis found that the combined effects of Trump’s tax policies, higher prices and the expiration of expanded health insurance tax credits would raise taxes and consumer costs for every income group except the wealthiest 1%.

Mendoza has built her campaign around rejecting that approach and presenting herself as a working-class candidate with military experience. She grew up in a farming family in Eloy and began working in the fields with her parents at age 10. She enlisted in the Navy at 17, later joined the Marine Corps and eventually became a drill instructor. Mendoza, who is campaigning as a single mother, frequently uses military language in speeches and has described the demands of the campaign as requiring her to “embrace the suck.” A COVID-19 infection forced her to cancel several days of canvassing late in the campaign, and she spoke with the Arizona Daily Star by video from home.

On economic policy, Mendoza has called for repealing tariffs, reversing tax reductions for wealthy Americans and restoring social programs reduced under the legislation Ciscomani supported. She has spoken about relying on SNAP as a child and says programs such as food assistance and Medicaid are tied directly to whether people can work, pay their bills and remain housed. Ciscomani initially joined 12 other House Republicans in warning Speaker Mike Johnson that they would not support legislation reducing Medicaid coverage for vulnerable people, but he ultimately voted for the bill. He has defended new Medicaid and SNAP requirements as protections against abuse while maintaining that people who qualify should receive assistance.

Those arguments carry particular weight in Arizona, where major changes to the state’s AHCCCS Medicaid program are scheduled to begin Jan. 1. New work requirements and eligibility checks could affect more than 400,000 members, according to reporting cited in the race coverage. Nearly half of Arizona SNAP participants lost access to benefits over the previous year, described as the sharpest decline nationally by Reuters. Ciscomani said people who remain eligible but lost food assistance should contact his office. Mendoza has supported expanding Medicaid access and argued that rural residents cannot meet work obligations if they cannot obtain health care or find sufficient employment in their communities.

The economy is not the only force shaping the contest. University of Arizona political scientist Samara Klar said voters are focused on intimate questions such as whether they can pay rent, buy groceries and fill their gas tanks. She also identified immigration and water policy as important Southwestern concerns, along with unresolved issues from the 2024 election. Klar said Arizona’s political identity has shifted from reliably Republican toward competitive ground. The state has a Democratic governor, two Democratic senators, a Democratic attorney general, a Democratic secretary of state and several Democratic mayors, even though Republicans make up about 35% of registered voters compared with about 29% for Democrats. Most of the remainder are presumably independents.

Latino voters could be decisive in the district and across Arizona. More than 68 million Hispanics live in the United States, and their influence is especially strong in states including Arizona. A September survey of 800 registered Latino voters found that 59% wanted Democrats to control Congress, compared with 35% who preferred Republicans, while 69% disapproved of Trump’s job performance. High prices, the cost of living and immigration enforcement were major concerns. The survey found Democrats held a 21 point advantage among Latino voters on handling the economy, a sharp reversal from 2024, when Trump held a four point advantage over Kamala Harris on that issue. With voters heading toward the Nov. 3 midterms and the House balance expected to be close, the choices made in Tucson and throughout the 6th District may reverberate well beyond Southern Arizona.