Drier and warmer today and tomorrow

For people in Tucson and across Southeast Arizona, the next two days should bring a brief break from the recent monsoon humidity and storm activity. Drier air moving into the region today and Saturday is expected to produce mostly sunny skies, lower humidity and temperatures near seasonal averages, with readings trending warmer than the cooler weather that followed recent storms. The quieter pattern may be welcome for outdoor plans, travel and recovery from localized flooding, but it is not expected to last. Moisture begins returning Sunday, setting up a more unsettled stretch early next week.

The change will happen in stages. Today and Saturday should be comparatively dry and warmer, while clouds and moisture increase Sunday. A stronger surge of tropical moisture is forecast to arrive Monday and Tuesday. A disturbance moving inland from the West Coast is then expected to interact with that moisture, creating opportunities for widespread showers and thunderstorms across Arizona. That combination could also push afternoon temperatures below normal, making early next week notably different from the sunnier weekend.

The forecast follows a significant round of monsoon weather that affected parts of Arizona. Multiple rounds of storms brought heavy rain Wednesday, with some locations receiving more precipitation than they typically see during an entire monsoon season. Other areas received only about a tenth of an inch, underscoring how uneven monsoon rainfall can be from one community to the next. Another round of showers and thunderstorms was expected to cross the state during the evening and move out around midnight, while heavy rain in the high country kept the flash flood threat elevated.

The storms caused serious problems elsewhere in the state, especially in the Phoenix area. Intense downpours led to flash flood warnings, whiteout conditions on freeways and severe flooding in Scottsdale, prompting road closures. Those impacts are a reminder for Tucson residents that a dry interval does not eliminate the need to watch conditions when the next storm pattern arrives. Monsoon storms can develop quickly, and rainfall totals can vary sharply over short distances, including between the city, foothills and surrounding communities.

The broader outlook calls for a temporary return to hotter, clearer conditions before the next system arrives. Drier skies helped temperatures climb in Phoenix earlier in the week, reaching 93 degrees, which was nine degrees above normal there. A strengthening ridge was expected to push Phoenix to 96 degrees under sunny skies, with highs remaining in the 90s through Friday and additional clouds arriving Thursday afternoon and Friday. By the weekend and into early the following week, storm systems moving through the western United States were expected to increase rain chances, bring gusty winds and lower temperatures into the 80s in the Valley. Forecast details remained uncertain regarding the exact location and timing of the rain.

For Tucson residents, the immediate safety message is to use the dry weekend wisely while staying prepared for renewed storms. Heat can still be dangerous even when monsoon humidity temporarily drops. Health officials recommend drinking water before, during and after outdoor work or exercise, limiting strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day and checking on friends, relatives and neighbors who may be more vulnerable to heat. Lightweight, light-colored clothing, head protection and a charged phone are useful for anyone hiking or working outside. People heading into the desert or mountains should tell someone where they are going and when they expect to return, and hiking with another person is safer than going alone.

Residents should also refresh their storm plans before moisture returns Sunday. A household should have flashlights and extra batteries, a first aid kit, food that does not require refrigeration or cooking, and at least one gallon of clean water per person. Anyone who relies on an electrically powered medical device should arrange backup power, and phones should have a backup charging option. During a thunderstorm, the safest indoor location is away from windows, skylights and glass doors. A battery-powered or hand-crank radio can help when power or cellphone service is interrupted.

Flood safety remains especially important after recent heavy rain. Never drive into flowing or standing water, and turn around if a roadway is flooded. Officials caution that less than 10 inches of moving water can sweep away a vehicle. If water rises around a car, occupants should leave quickly and move to higher ground, if it is safe to do so. People should follow evacuation instructions and wait for authorities to say an area is safe before returning. Downed power lines must be avoided because nearby ground can remain energized, and residents should not walk through puddles that may conceal electrical hazards.

The weekend forecast therefore offers Tucson a short period of sunnier, less humid weather, not an end to the storm season. Conditions are expected to become more humid and cloudier Sunday, with greater shower and thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday and potentially cooler afternoons afterward. Because the timing and placement of rain can still change, residents should continue monitoring updated forecasts before commuting, hiking, traveling or making outdoor plans. In an area where one neighborhood may receive heavy rain while another stays dry, preparation remains important even during a seemingly calm stretch.